Will Idaho Have a White Christmas? The Farmer’s Almanac Says…

Thanks to Bing Crosby (or Frank Sinatra or Elvis or The Drifters,) people all over the world dream of a “White Christmas.” Luckily for the Gem State, we live somewhere where it’s not a totally far fetched dream. Will it happen this year? Farmer’s Almanac has weighed in with their prediction for 2024. 

It wasn’t all that long ago that we were visiting family in Ohio for Christmas. They live just below the snowbelt, so they’re pretty used to getting smacked with the fringe of a lake effect snowstorm. But this particular year? It was 64 degrees where we were at.

READ MORE: Idaho's First Significant Snow Dates Revealed for 2024

Meanwhile back in Boise, our friends were posting photos of the 4.7 inches of snow that fell on Christmas Eve. While we wore shorts on our Christmas Day run, the Treasure Valley enjoyed a White Christmas. It felt SO backward! (And yes, this was the beginning of Snowpocalypse 2016-2017.) 

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So what about 2024? Farmer’s Almanac just released their White Christmas Weather Forecast 2024 and while most of the nation looks like they’re about to be really disappointed, things look promising for most of Idaho. A significant band stretching from North Idaho to Eastern Idaho is solidly covered by the dark blue “White Christmas” band. The rest of the state? Blanketed by the light blue representing “chance of a white Christmas.” 

When you dig a little deeper into their forecast, they say: 

Moving west towards Montana and Idaho, the odds of a White Christmas are quite good but also very consistent; it may be cold, but some areas are also dry with the precipitation needed for snow. Missoula, Montana, has a very high 98% chance. Idaho City, near Boise, is also high, with a 94% chance. 

What Does the National Weather Service Predict?

While Farmers Almanac doesn’t exactly define what they consider a “White Christmas,” the National Weather Service’s office in Boise does. They say in order for Idaho’s capital city to have an official “White Christmas” there must be at least an inch of snow on the ground at the present-day Boise Airport at 5 a.m. on December 25. 

It’s a winter stat that they’ve tracked since 1939 and it’s happened 24 times since then. Boise’s most recent White Christmas was in 2022, when there was 3” on the ground. There have also been 17 Christmases with measurable snowfall piling up at some point on Christmas Day, most recently in 2021. 

The National Weather Service gives Boise a 29% probability of their definition of a White Christmas.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Office in Spokane lists the possibility of a White Christmas in these Idaho cities:

• Bonners Ferry: 74%
• Kellogg: 50%
• Lewiston: 20% 
• Moscow: 46%
• St. Maries: 56%
• Sandpoint: 70%

While the offices that cover other parts of the state didn’t make the data as easy to find, the USA Today did say in 2023 that statistically, Idaho Falls is the sixth most likely city to have a White Christmas in America. They placed that probability at 80%.