Warmer, Drier Than Usual Winter Predicted for Treasure Valley
Raise your hand if you're done with 100º temps and sunburn!
Yeah, so are we. Now that the kids are back in school, we're looking forward to cooler temperatures, Boise State football season and pumpkin spice lattes. At the same time, we absolutely do not want a repeat of the 2016-2017 Snowpocalypse that extended kids' Christmas breaks by over a week and trapped people in their subdivisions for weeks!
So what will winter 2018-2019 be like for the Treasure Valley? According to the NOAA's winter weather outlook for 2018-2019, we're expecting a winter that there's 33-40% chance of a winter that's drier than what's typically forecasted for our area. The long range forecast also predicts there's a 40-50% chance of the Treasure Valley experiencing a warmer winter than average as well.
NOAA makes their predictions by looking at weather patterns from across the globe and the likelihood of El Nino or La Nina developing. Right now there's a 70% chance of El Nino developing. If you're dreaming of fresh powder at Bogus, Brundage and Tamarack, don't get too bummed yet. A new, official 90-day outlook is issued once a month so future models might show something different.
For what it's worth, the Farmer's Almanac, which many people swear by, also published it's long range forecast for winter 2018-2019. Their long range forecasts don't break things down city by city, but their forecast for the Intermountain Region (which includes the Boise area) also shows warmer than average temperatures this winter. Unlike the NOAA, they do predict above average precipitation. So for you powder hounds, at least you have that going for you.
My question is, do you believe any of these long range forecasts? Last year, multiple forecasts predicted a colder and snowier winter for the Treasure Valley...and did it happen? No, not really. I distinctly remember being thrilled to wear shorts for my 5K on Thanksgiving and not running through 6 inches at the Hot Cocoa Run in February like I had in 2017.