National Weather Service Shocks Boise With New, Snowier Winter Outlook
It’s a bit ironic that so many of us are quick to say “Don’t like the weather? Wait five minutes, it’ll change,” and yet, when a new winter outlook gets released, you can’t wait to see what it says!
And trust us, there are A LOT of different winter outlooks out there. There are two different Farmer’s Almanacs and they both predict something for Boise. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests that we’ll see average or above average snowfall with the snowiest periods hitting us in mid-November, early January, late January and mid-March. The other Farmer’s Almanac thinks that we’ll be “chilly” and “wet” with a foot of snow to dump on Idaho in February.
READ MORE: 15 Signs Idaho Could Be in for a Very Harsh, Snowy Winter
Some people swear by their forecasts, even though they’re made anywhere from 16-18 months in advance and use a forecasting formula so secret that they’ve changed their weather prognosticator’s name to protect it. In reality? SnowPlow News says that both almanacs are about 24-25% accurate.
Long range forecasts made by actual meteorologists? They’re a bit more accurate at 50%. The pros also that long range forecasts made more than 10-days in advance are more likely to be incorrect. That’s why you’ll see agencies like the National Weather Service update their long range forecasts every few months.
They just did that for the winter outlook cover December-January-February and WOW have things changed for Boise since the one they released a month ago!
Boise Could Face “Chiller” Than Normal Conditions in 2024-2025
The band of blue blanketing parts of the Pacific Northwest dipped deeper south with the new forecast. While Ada and Canyon County were left out of it the first time around, all of Canyon County and most of Ada County are now solidly in the light blue band.
The color represents a 33-40% chance of temperatures leaning below normal. Historical data tells us these temperatures are “normal” for December-February.
Is Boise Going to Face Snowpocalypse 2.0 This Winter?
The winter outlook doesn’t include any actual snow total predictions, but like the temperature map the band of green has dipped much further south into Idaho than the last prediction. In fact, it covers most of the state now. Both Ada County and Canyon County are entirely swallowed by the light green color representing a 33-40% chance of precipitation totals being higher than normal. More moisture + colder than normal temps? That could be a perfect recipe for heavier snowfall than we’ve seen in a bit.
For reference, these are the normal and record snow totals for the Boise area.
As we mentioned earlier, long range forecasts are pretty difficult to trust beyond 10 days. The National Weather Service will likely update this one more time before December. But for now, if you were bummed out by the lack of snow in the last forecast, this should make your day!
KEEP READING: 15 Signs Idaho Could Be in For a Harsh, Unforgiving Winter
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Gallery Credit: Michelle Heart