“I Believe Boise is the Biggest Housing Bubble in America”
The value of homes in Boise and the surrounding markets has been indescribable? How does one define a market where a house has doubled in value in the last five years? Meteoric? Historic? A once in a lifetime valuation that we'll be talking about for the next hundred years? Is there any other housing market that could rival a hot stock or a cryptocurrency?
Real Estate Expert Nicholas Gerli, founder and CEO of Reventure Consulting, examined the Boise Market in a YouTube Video. You recall he has predicted a Boise housing crisis here. He holds nothing back on his 'deep dive' into the Boise Market. Gerli explains that he believes there are red flags within the housing market. He says, "The real estate growth is accelerating, but the demographic growth is not accelerating. It remains stable." Gerli points out that wages in Boise are not keeping up with the escalation in home prices.
Idaho has historically been one of the lowest states for wage earners in the country. Gerli says that the average wage in Idaho is roughly $26.00 an hour. The real estate expert explains, "when the average house is valued and climbing at over $450,000, it's a challenge for those workers to find a home to live in." Affordable housing has been a campaign issue for several years in Idaho politics. "One of the biggest causes of the housing crash in 2007 and 2008 and the markets that got hit the hardest was where housing prices outgrew wages the most. That is exactly what is happening in Boise right now."
Gerli believes that housing prices will drop forty percent in the next couple of years. He compares Boise to other housing market bubbles. "Boise is the rare city that looks much like Vegas, Phoenix, and Reno in 2005." He cautions that the real estate market is too dependent on investors who do not live in their homes. Local real estate experts have told us they question Gerli's research based on the lack of access to the Intermountain MLS.